Dalia Acosta

HAVANA, Nov 15 2006 (IPS) – Betting on the health of Cuban President Fidel Castro, his reappearance in public and his return to the helm is gaining in popularity with the approach of Dec. 2, the day Castro himself chose to celebrate his 80th birthday.
The fiesta , which was to have taken place on or around his Aug. 13 birthday, was postponed by Castro in the same public statement in which he announced that he had undergone emergency surgery, and was handing over his position and powers to his brother Raúl Castro, the armed forces minister, provisionally and for the first time ever since 1959.

More than 100 days after the announcement, opinions on the streets of the Cuban capital vary widely. Plenty of people say that Fidel will be back and that he will undoubtedly be at the celebrations, while many others take a cautious view after a video broadcast on Cuban television on Oct. 28.

I understand that it had to be proved that he was alive, but I wouldn t have shown him in that condition. There s a different look in his eyes. It s going to be hard to have him back as he was, as we were used to seeing him, said Aurelia Comas, a member of a Grandparents Club, who says she has been a revolutionary and Fidelista all my life.

The video shows Castro speaking to the camera, sitting and reading the day s newspaper, riding in an elevator and walking slowly but unaided down a corridor. He referred to the rumours of his death that have been flying around, and reminded people that he had previously warned that his recovery would be prolonged and not exempt of risk.

Clearly the president s willpower is greater than his actual physical capacity, Manuel Cuesta Morúa, a spokesman for Arco Progresista (Progressive Rainbow), a moderate dissident coalition, told IPS.
Some say he isn t well, but nobody really knows. Anything can happen he is strong, said Virgen Gómez, an English teacher.

That he ll be back is beyond question, said Manuel Agüero, leader of a Committee for the Defence of the Revolution, socialist groups that operate at the neighbourhood level.

A woman from another Latin American country who has lived in Cuba since the early 1960s postponed a trip abroad for several reasons, among them her determination not to miss the activities planned for Nov. 28-Dec. 2: a military parade, concert, exhibit and seminar on the impact of Castro s thinking.

I want to be here on the day he comes back, said the woman, who preferred that neither her name nor her country of origin be mentioned. Confirming the dates and arrangements for the festivities, the Ecuadorian Guayasamín Foundation said that in the opportune moment, in the midst of Fidel s disciplined process of recovery, he will decide the circumstances in which it will be possible for him to accompany those of us who will be here in Havana. If the doctors allow it, Fidel could make that expected public reappearance, at least at one of the planned events, said Argentine writer and lawmaker Miguel Bonasso, a personal friend of Castro s.

While United States officials say Castro is suffering from terminal cancer and is unlikely to live to see 2008, the messages from Cuban authorities avoid all extremes: Castro is not fully recovered, but neither is he so ill that he cannot supervise the country s major decisions.

In an interview with the U.S. news agency AP, Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque said on Nov. 6 that Castro s recovery was advancing, although he said there was no guarantee that he will be well enough to attend the celebrations.

Pérez Roque also said that the president would return to his official functions at the right time, and that It s a subject on which I don t want to speculate.

Previously, on Nov. 3, the president of the Cuban parliament, Ricardo Alarcón, had said that Castro was recovering faster than expected, and was increasingly involved in political activity, being consulted about many matters.

He will return to his responsibilities, Vice-President Carlos Lage told the press in Montevideo, Uruguay on Nov. 5, during the Ibero-American Summit there.

Above and beyond the question of whether Castro will take part in his belated birthday celebrations, local analysts say the tranquility that has reigned in Cuba since the announcement of his surgery proves the socialist government s capacity to keep a firm hold on power in his absence.

In Cuesta Morúa s view, a return by a fully functional Castro to power is no longer an option, and it is time to make a decision to completely hand over power to his successor under Cuban law, his brother Raúl.

That is the only way Cuba will be able to begin moving towards a new era, he said.